[techtalk] why do I read this stuff

[Scott]

Why do I bother reading this stuff?


Want Linux on your desktop? Nine reasons to forget about it
By David Coursey, AnchorDesk
June 11, 2001 9:00 PM PT
URL: 
http://www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/stories/story/0,10738,2773365,00.html?chkpt=zdhpnews02 

Linux is an important part of the computing landscape. Important because 
open standards matter. Important because it creates competition and a 
looming threat to Microsoft. Important because it gives a large number of 
geeks and wonks a religion to belong to--complete with a patriarch.
Religion is a good thing, I believe, right up to the moment it makes a fool 
out of you. And a good many Linux
what's the term? Proponents? Advocates? 
No, zealots!--yes, a good many Linux zealots make fools of themselves.
I don't have Ninety-Five Theses to nail to the Wittenberg Door, as Martin 
Luther did, but I take my reformation work where I can find it. So here are 
some ideas for reforming people's wrong-headed notions of Linux:
Linux will never become common as a desktop operating system, and no amount 
of believing will change that. It only makes adherents look stupid. Why? 
Because Linux is too complex, and there isn't enough money to make it worth 
someone's time to build a really great environment for desktop apps. And 
then software companies would need to build applications, but how large a 
market is there? Yes, chicken-and-egg, but that stops many things, not just 
desktop Linux.
If client-side Java had lived up to the promise of "write once, run 
anywhere" then Linux would have a bigger, but hardly fighting, chance of 
unseating desktop Windows.
Linux, desktop especially but also server, is not a major threat to 
Microsoft. But it is enough of a threat to make Microsoft notice, and that 
is usually a good thing. Microsoft will be on the defensive, at least a 
little, and that gives customers some leverage they don't otherwise enjoy.
I don't have numbers to support this, but Linux may be a bigger threat to 
various flavors of UNIX than it is to Microsoft server operating systems.
There's at least a 50/50 probability that Linux will become Balkanized just 
as UNIX was. There will be multiple, semi-compatible versions of Unix that 
seem to be one operating system, right up until you try to install 
applications. Surprise! Not the Solaris version? Sorry!
People talk about how wonderful it is that Linux is free. But over the life 
of a server, the operating system is such a small part of the cost that it 
gets lost in the other soft- and hard-dollar expenses. And you'd think 
systems offering the lowest total cost-of-ownership would sell better than 
they usually do. Apple, for many years, claimed a big TCO lead over 
Windows. But did it help?
Big hardware companies may yet co-opt Linux: Here's an operating system 
they can load, create add-ons for, and then sell support contracts for. Add 
some minor barriers to switching to other platforms and operating 
systems--either Microsoft or another Linux--and you might have something. 
Isn't this how Sun became King of Unix?
Linux is a fine server operating system Use it with my blessing, but don't 
let it define you, your IS shop, or your company. And don't select Linux 
just because you hate Microsoft. That isn't good enough reason to pick an 
operating system.
Linux will be a common operating system in places where we don't see an 
operating system--like home information and entertainment appliances. Want 
Linux? Buy a TiVo digital video recorder. Linux makes great sense as an 
embedded OS, but faces much competition. Still, I am betting most people 
will have some sort of Linux-powered device in the lives sometime in the 
next 5 years or so.
Luther and his followers were excommunicated for their beliefs. I don't 
face anything nearly as drastic as that--but I know there are many in the 
Linux cult ready to proclaim me a heretic, or worse.
For my part, I suppose I'm happy there are people who define their lives by 
what operating system they use--if only because they're fun to watch. But I 
am even happier that I'm not one of them.